Real Estate and Housing Outlook

    Here's where it's at. I don't have a crystal ball, but I live and work inside the crystal ball, so I see what is going on and I don't try to spin anything. If I see it, I call it. I own a real estate brokerage in Florida, so I hear the consumer side. I also have the privilege of working with some of the world's most successful real estate investors, financial institutions, hedge funds and high net worth individuals. And when you put the two together, it is truly . . . MAGIC.

Barrons - April 2008 - Maybe it was a fluke, but I got another two minutes on my 15 when Barrons ran a second article I wrote as a follow up to my 2006 piece. To read the full article Click Here

Barrons - October 2006 – I was asked to write a piece for Dow Jones in the summer of 2006. The article was published in the October 2, 2006 issue of Barrons as a full page on page 44. I was told the original piece was too "dark and gloomy," so it was toned down for the tame published version you see below. The original version is exactly what we are seeing unravel in the housing and banking crisis. The "dark and gloomy" is "here and now." Here is a link to the full article - Barrons - October 2, 2006

November 22, 2007 - Today, I made a decision not to distribute my detailed weekly reports and research for public consumption any longer, and not to provide media interviews. My research and commentary will be reserved exclusively for clients. From time to time I will post information on this website and/or send emails to my general email distribution list. It has all become a bit too much to maintain, so I am taking a step back. Here are a few comments . . . 
    I believe we are in for further price deterioration in single family homes, condos, commercial properties and land. We will see some markets fall as much as 30-50%. For some of the condo projects in downtown Miami, look for price declines of as much as 80% in the less than desirable areas, with some projects remaining vacant for years to come. On the beaches, there are first class locations like Continuum and Bal Harbour . . . and everything in between. The Gulf Coast from Naples to Tampa has a mix of pluses and minuses, as does Orlando, the Panhandle, Jacksonville and the Palm Beach area. Location is still the key, but inventory, amenities and fees will have a great deal to do with price declines and appreciation.

Quick Notes - Instead of posting my weekly reports, I have decided to post comments a few times a week in the form of Quick Notes and on my Blog.  If you would like to receive an auto-email when I post comments, subscribe to my blog - Click Here and use the Subscribe Button at the bottom of the blog page.

“You can only go halfway into the darkest forest,
then you are coming out the other side.”
Chinese Proverb

Proverb Note: The trick is knowing when you are past the halfway mark, and then having the wisdom to find the way out. The same holds true for the current real estate market.

Other Markets - I spend a great deal of time on the ground - in the field. That is the only way to evaluate what is happening and what is going on. While I believe I am the most qualified expert on Florida, I also provide in-depth information on other markets, including DC Metro, Atlanta, California, New Jersey, Seattle, Las Vegas, Chicago, Dallas, etc. For those of you that believe the problems are isolated to Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix and their inflated markets, think again.

Residential Condo Buyers and Sellers - If you are a buyer or seller of a condo, my office provides a menu of services throughout the State of Florida for properties starting at $500,000. Please email me directly at Mike@MorganFlorida.org or call me 772-260-5448

Research and Consulting - I personally work with a number of hedge fund mangers, real estate investment trusts, portfolio managers and private investment groups. I provide a variety of services including statistics, custom research and property analysis, as well as offering tours of all Florida markets. On the equity and debt side, my research and consulting covers all of the publicly traded builders, as well as several lenders, and suppliers to the industry. On the hard asset side, I provide services to buyers and sellers of commercial property, land, residential communities, condo towers, golf courses and marinas. Research and Consulting Fees

Investors - If you are a private investor, please note that we only work with clients that retain our services. These clients have the first opportunity to purchase property that we find attractive. If you would like to be on our investment email list, simply email me your contact info: Mike@MorganFlorida.org

    My basic real estate investment advice has not changed for almost three years now, other than to say, be very very careful. There are some consultants recommending condo tower and commercial investments. These guys are simply looking after their own bank account and the potential to reap fat commissions. The markets remain soft and inventory is still growing. Prices will continue to crumble in many markets.  For a review of Investment Opportunities - Click Here

Land Deals - With many of our nation's home builders flat on their backs and commercial developers on their knees, they are quietly trying to unload as much land as possible. There have been some attractive land deals for investors with a 5+ year holding period. If you have the investing fortitude for these investments, feel to call me to discuss opportunities. 

Weekly Updates - If you are a private investor, hedge fund manager or portfolio manager please review my Weekly Updates. You can access a sampling of these Updates on this website - Click Here

My Consumer Website - One of the things that sets my research and consulting work apart from Wall Street analysts, research firms and traditional consultants is my ground zero approach. Yes, I provide you with as much data, statistics and fancy words as you need or want, but I maintain an active residential and commercial real estate brokerage. This provides me with the unique ability to speak with consumers and sellers of housing and commercial properties at a level the typical office bound analyst cannot even dream of. Please visit my consumer website at www.FloridaHomes.pro

Consulting, Research, Investment and Broker Fees - Click Here

Michael C. Morgan, J.D., CRS, GRI
Mike@MorganFlorida.org
772-260-5448